Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...

#1 HOME IS WHERE THE KITCHEN IS: “Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020 and turning to our brands for value, quality, and convenience. In the current dynamic macro environment, consumers are making thoughtful spending decisions, which is materializing in our categories. They continue to cook at home and focus their spending on products that help stretch their food budgets, and they’re increasingly intentional about their discretionary snack purchases.” – Mick Beekhuizen, CEO of The Campbell’s Company

#2 BOUNTIFUL HARVEST: Almond growers achieved higher yields in 2024, resulting in the third-largest crop on record, according to Hedgeye. The price per pound increased by $0.42 from 2023 to $2.14, marking a five-year high. The total harvest value reached $5.66 billion, representing a 40% increase from the previous year. A total of 2.73 billion pounds of almonds were collected—an 11% year-over-year increase. Yield per acre rose from 1,780 pounds in 2023 to 1,980 pounds in 2024, with expectations to exceed 2,000 pounds per acre in 2025. The USDA recently increased its 2025 yield and production estimates due to a wet winter and favorable weather during the spring bloom.

#3 CONSUMER SPENDING DATA: J.P. Morgan released selected Chase credit and debit card transaction data. Total spending was up 1.8% year-over-year in May. Excluding gas stations, total spending rose 2.6%, driven primarily by lower gas prices. Gas station spending declined by 13.4% in May, while airline spending fell by 8.7%. Year-to-date total spending is up 2.92% compared to the same period last year. Gen Z and Millennial spending increased by 4.7% in May, while Gen X and Baby Boomer spending declined by 0.5% and 1.7%, respectively. Discretionary spending rose 2.4%, while non-discretionary spending increased by just 0.5%.

#4 EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS: Texas accounted for 42.2% of total U.S. crude oil production and 29.2% of U.S.-marketed natural gas production between January and May, according to the Texas Oil & Gas Association. The group estimated Texas crude oil production remained steady at 5.7 million barrels per day last month, while marketed natural gas production reached a record 34.4 billion cubic feet per day. Texas exported $19.8 billion in energy products in March, a 2.6% year-over-year increase.

#5 INVEST IN YOUR SLEEP: Piper Sandler released the results of its May Mattress Retailers Survey, which showed encouraging results. Delivered sales increased by 4% on a mean basis and 5% on a median basis year-over-year. This marks the second consecutive month with sales among the strongest in roughly three years. Strength in both April and May was unit-driven, with May median units up 4.5%—the highest in four years. While the “pull-forward” debate continues, Piper Sandler believes that two straight months of healthy sales reflect strong underlying demand.

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