Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...

#1 SAFE AT HOME: Net inflows into U.S.-domiciled equity ETFs climbed to $200 billion on a rolling one-month basis, Bloomberg’s Simon White reports, citing Macrobond research data. That’s a sharp jump from the roughly $50 billion pace earlier this year and has been exceeded only once in the past five years, in fall 2024. The U.S. continues to command nearly 71% of the market-cap-weighted MSCI World Index, close to its recent peak of 72% in late 2024. According to MSCI’s Oct. 31 factsheet, all of the top 10 components hail from the U.S., with Nvidia’s 6.01% weighting surpassing that of Japan (5.49%), the second-most-represented nation. (Grant’s Interest Rate Observer)

#2 SOMEWHERE GORDON GEKKO IS SMILING: SEC Chair Paul Atkins yesterday called on the agency to ease several prominent disclosure rules. Among them: a 2017 rule requiring companies to report the ratio of their CEO’s total compensation to that of their median employee. Using this data, the AFL-CIO found the average S&P 500 CEO earned $18.9 million last year, up 7% from 2023. The CEO-to-worker pay ratio rose to 285-to-1 from 268-to-1. In other words, if the rule intended to shame companies into moderating pay, it hasn’t worked. In his annual Thanksgiving letter, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett—long critical of excessive compensation—argued that the rule’s “good intentions” have “backfired.” “The new rules produced envy, not moderation,” he wrote. “What often bothers very wealthy CEOs — they are human, after all — is that other CEOs are getting even richer. Envy and greed walk hand in hand.” Greed may not be good, but it remains a potent motivator. (Daily Upside)

#3 BLACK FRIDAY SALES WERE SOLID: Retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% y/y on the day after Thanksgiving, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, surpassing last year’s 3.4% gain. The data, which is not adjusted for inflation, reflects both online and in-store spending. In-store sales increased 1.7% y/y, above last year’s pace. Online sales rose 10.4%, a slower gain than last year. Adobe Analytics separately reported that Black Friday online sales rose 9.1% y/y, with AI tools helping shoppers find deals. Adobe tracks 1 trillion visits to online retail sites. (Piper Sandler & Co.)

#4 RELIEF FROM GAS PRICES: The average U.S. gasoline price fell to its lowest level since May 2021 over the weekend before Thanksgiving, dipping below $3 per gallon, according to Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. The median U.S. price stands at $2.83 per gallon. The top 10% of stations average $4.35 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.31. “With refinery maintenance largely complete and OPEC increasing oil production for December, oil prices have struggled. Combine those factors and you have a solid recipe for continued downward pressure on gas prices in the weeks ahead,” De Haan said.

#5 SACRIFICING OUR FUTURE: Since 1936, Gallup has asked Americans how many children they consider ideal. This summer, the answer reached 2.7—its highest level in 50 years. In reality, however, Americans are having far fewer children: the total fertility rate is just 1.6, creating a record 1.1-child gap between aspirations and outcomes. Ideal family size and actual fertility don’t historically move in lockstep, but the divergence reinforces a long-standing point: declining birthrates aren’t about wanting fewer kids, but about feeling less able to have them. According to the 2025 American Family Survey, 43% of respondents said insufficient money played a role in limiting family size, while only 22% cited a lack of personal desire. The affordability gap continues widening: in 2015, 51% of U.S. adults disagreed that “the cost of raising children is affordable for most people.” Today, that share has jumped 20 percentage points to 71%. (Hedgeye)

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