Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...

#1 FOLLOW THE LEADER: Financials currently have the highest percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, at 93%, followed by Utilities at 87% and Communication Services at 86%. In contrast, Healthcare has the lowest percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average at 40%, followed by Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples, all in the low 40s. (Source: Piper Sandler)

#2 VOTE OF CONFIDENCE: This marks the 9th year where the S&P 500 has risen by over 5% in November and more than 20% year-to-date through November. Notably, three of the prior eight instances occurred during election years (1928, 1980, and 1996). In two of those election years (1980 and 1996), the S&P saw declines in December. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)

#3 GHOST TOWN: Only 6% of the federal workforce “report in person on a full-time basis,” according to a report from Senator Joni Ernst’s office. In stark contrast, nearly one-third of federal employees now work remotely full-time, a significant shift from the pre-pandemic era when just 3% teleworked daily. Government buildings are averaging an occupancy rate of 12%. When excluding security guards and maintenance personnel, fewer than 1% of federal workers reportedly work in person for a full 40-hour week. (Source: NY Post)

#4 FEELING POSITIVE: An analysis of the annual distribution of S&P 500 total returns over the last 100 years reveals that 26% of years delivered negative returns, while 39% achieved gains of more than 20% (including the last two years). Additionally, 21% of years posted returns between 10-20%, and only 14% saw returns between 0-10%. (Source: Deutsche Bank)

#5 FULL STOCKINGS: The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 2.5-3.5% year-over-year growth in holiday sales for 2024, despite five fewer shopping days in the season. As anticipated, Black Friday and Cyber Monday reached new highs. Initial reports indicate record-breaking shopper turnout for Cyber Week, with a notable shift toward online spending. Total e-commerce spending rose by 8.2% to $41.1 billion during the holiday weekend. U.S. consumers spent approximately $10.8 billion online on Black Friday, a 10.2% year-over-year increase, while Cyber Monday saw a record $13.3 billion in online spending, up 7.3% year-over-year. However, this online growth came at the expense of in-store traffic. Some outlets reported up to an 8.2% decline in in-store visits on Black Friday, partially attributed to holiday deals starting earlier and running longer, reducing the urgency of Thanksgiving sales. (Source: Zetaglobal.com)

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This discussion is not intended to be a forecast of future events and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Investing in smaller companies involves additional risks such as limited liquidity and greater volatility. No current or prospective client should assume that information referenced in this communication is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or is a substitute for personalized investment advice from your individual advisor. HCM does not provide tax or legal advice. Consult your tax or legal advisor for any related questions.

All information referenced herein is from sources believed to be reliable and is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. This material was created for informational purposes only and the opinions expressed are solely those of HCM. HCM shall not in any way be liable for claims and makes no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced and are subject to change without notice.