Friday Fast Five - 11/17/2023
by Hodges Investment Team, on November 17, 2023
Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...
#1 DOWNSHIFT: According to Manheim, October used car prices decreased by 2.3% m/m (-3.1% seasonally adjusted) and by 4.0% y/y (-6.3% seasonally adjusted). Manheim estimates used retail sales in October fell by 2% m/m and by 4% y/y, with their full year forecast now anticipated to be about 18.9M units (down 1% y/y).
#2 LAND OF MILK AND HONEY: In early 2023, CBRE ran a survey that showed Dallas-Fort Worth as the #1 preferred market for real estate investment. In addition to providing a high quality of life to residents, Dallas also has the highest rate of y/y job growth and the 4th largest concentration of Fortune 500 companies in the U.S. In 2022, DFW added an annual record-topping 170k new residents, representing 36% of the population growth for the entire state of Texas. By 2050, DFW is projected to be larger than Chicago, becoming the 3rd largest metropolitan area in the U.S.
#3 BE A LOT COOLER IF YOU DID: On Tuesday, Ohio became the 24th state to legalize recreational marijuana use. The successful ballot initiative is more evidence that weed can win in red-leaning states. Now, 54% of Americans live in a state where recreational weed is legal. According to an October 2023 Gallup survey, a record 70% of Americans now support marijuana legalization, compared to only 12% in 1969 and 30% in 2000. The Gallup survey also found that 87% of Democrats support legalization, while 55% of Republicans are also in favor. (Hedgeye)
#4 I WANT MY MTV: A new kind of youth program is emerging. An increasing number of summer camps and after-school activities focus on teaching kids to become influencers. This summer, Creator Camp enrolled 1,300 campers in 11 Texas locations. Next year, it will expand to 18 areas. During the day, kids learn to edit videos, create storyboards, write scripts, and use greenscreens. According to a 2019 survey by the Harris Poll, 30% of 8-12-year-olds chose “YouTuber” as their number one career choice. (Newswire)
#5 KINETIC ENERGY: According to Statista, energy drinks account for nearly a third of convenience store packaged beverage sales in the U.S. Goldman Sachs surveyed 40,000 retailers and noted that respondents saw 11% sales growth in the third quarter and expect that growth to rise to 13% in 2024. While Red Bull and Monster continue to dominate the energy drinks category, Celsius has surged into third place in the hot market. It saw 147% sales gains and made over $1.4 billion in the 52 weeks ended October 7. The gains have not gone unnoticed. Around 85% of those surveyed said they planned to give more c-store shelves or cooler space to Celsius going forward. (cstoredive.com)
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