Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...
#1 THE BOX OFFICE IS BACK: Cinemark (CNK), one of the largest movie theater operators, announced that it experienced its highest day of attendance last Saturday (4/8/23) since Christmas Day of 2019. Theater attendance was driven by strong openings for “Super Mario Bros. Movie” and Amazon Studio’s “Air.” and carry-over from films such as “John Wick: Chapter 4” and “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.”
#2 GOLDEN STATE TAX CRUNCH: According to Strategas, California corporate tax collections declined by 80% in March and 38% in the first quarter, an early sign of a profit recession in the State. Nationally corporate tax revenue has remained positive but could turn negative during 2023.
#3 MARKET SENTIMENT: As investors brace for a macroeconomic slowdown, this week started with the most significant net short position in the S&P 500 futures since 2011. Furthermore, the breadth of the market remains lackluster, with 57% of stocks in the S&P 500 trading below their 200-day moving average.
#4 RUSSIAN POPULATION DECLINE: A recent article from the Economist has projected that Russia’s demographic challenges worsened in 2022 on a large scale due to falling birth rates, Covid-19, and the Ukraine War. Although official 2022 data is not yet available, 2021 data reflected a half-million population decline.
#5 TIME IN THE MARKET VS. MARKET TIMING: A study published by Putnam Investments on market timing showed that during the 15 years from the beginning of 2008 to the end of 2022, investors who missed the ten best trading days would have realized a 62.7% lower return than investors that stayed fully invested.
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