Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...

#1 SHIPPING RATES: The Stephens Truck-Load Index, which measures trucking revenue per mile for public carriers, was down 3.3% year-over-year in the 2Q24 due to an oversupply of capacity. However, seasonal trends and improving import demand could support better rates in the second half of the year.

#2 YIELD CURVE: The yield curve has been inverted for 25 consecutive months without a recession, the most prolonged period by four months going back to 1954. Such inversions (short-term interest rates higher than long-term rates) have historically signaled a coming economic slowdown. (Source data: The Conference Board)

#3 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: According to The New York Funds Survey of Consumer Expectations, consumer expectations for inflation over the next three years have reached the lowest level since 2012 at 2.3%. 

#4 BLACK GOLD: OPEC forecasts that crude oil demand will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024; global daily oil production is expected to be just over 4% higher than in 2019.   

#5 LUCRATIVE TEEN JOBS: With teen labor participation hitting a 14-year high in May, data from payroll platform Gusto found that hourly wages for workers aged 15-19 years hit $15.68 in June, up more than 36% from the start of 2019. According to Fed data, this increase outpaced the growth rate for workers of all ages on private payrolls, which climbed just under 27% across the same period.

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