Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...
#1 Bond Yield Signal: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has declined by an average of 172 bps from its cycle peak ahead of the last four recessions, according to Canaccord Genuity. If history is any guide, a drop in yields below 3.5% would signal a potential recession.
#2 Mortgage Rates: The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently fell 16 bps to 6.29%, according to Mortgage News Daily, following the release of a weaker-than-expected August employment report. This marks the lowest level in nearly a year.
#3 Soybeans: U.S. export sales for the 2025/2026 soybean crop are lagging year-ago levels, with China yet to make any purchases, according to research from Stephens and the USDA’s latest monthly export data.
#4 Used Vehicles: Used vehicle prices ended August up 1.7% y/y (flat MoM), based on data from Manheim Consulting. EVs and luxury models saw the most upward pressure (+4.6% and +2.3%, respectively), while compacts declined 3.5% y/y.
#5 Quote of the Day: “It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – Nelson Mandela
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This discussion is not intended to be a forecast of future events and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Investing in smaller companies involves additional risks such as limited liquidity and greater volatility. No current or prospective client should assume that information referenced in this communication is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or is a substitute for personalized investment advice from your individual advisor. HCM does not provide tax or legal advice. Consult your tax or legal advisor for any related questions.
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