Five interesting things that Hodges Capital research analysts discovered this week...
#1 INVEST AS A HOBBY, OR IN A HOBBY? Following the rise of collectible toys—from LEGO to Labubu—the latest craze is trading cards. Major retailers have reported explosive growth: Target says trading-card sales are up 70% YTD, with revenue on track to hit $1B by year-end. Walmart Marketplace reports an even bigger surge: between February 2024 and June 2025, trading-card sales jumped 200%, and Pokémon sales have grown more than tenfold. According to market researcher Circana, the trading-card market in 2025 will be about two-and-a-half times the size it was in 2021. Strategic trading-card games, such as Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering, are expected to rise from $641M to $1.53B—a 139% increase—while non-strategic trading cards, like sports cards, are projected to surge from $360M to $925M, a 157% jump. The two core demographics driving the boom are Homelanders and late-wave Millennials, ages 8 to 28. (Hedgeye)
#2 ONLY KIDS HAVE TO SHARE: New Census data reveals a sharp decline in the share of married couples who maintain joint bank accounts. In 2000, 62% of couples used only joint accounts. By 2023, that share had plunged 32 percentage points to just 30%. Meanwhile, the share of couples with no joint accounts nearly doubled from 13% to 23%. Another 27% now fall in between, using a mix of joint and separate accounts. One reason for the shift toward separate accounts is that couples now marry later, typically after establishing their own financial footing. In 2000, the median age at first marriage was 26.8 for men and 25.1 for women. By 2025, those ages had risen to 30.8 and 28.4—an increase of more than three years. Another factor is the long-term rise of dual-earning households, which has reduced the financial dependence that once made joint accounts the norm. And then there’s Millennial risk aversion: a generation that views a low credit score as a dating red flag may also hesitate to give open access to their hard-earned money—even to their dearly beloved. (Hedgeye).
#3 HIGH ROLLERS WELCOME: Casino gambling will make its debut in the UAE in 2027, becoming the newest attraction in a rapidly growing, wealthy international tourism hub. Dubai International Airport is already the world’s second-busiest, with 92.3 million passengers in 2024. Visitation is expected to rise further thanks to major infrastructure investments, including the expansion of Dubai Airport—which will ultimately handle more than 220 million passengers annually—and the Etihad Rail system, which will connect 11 UAE cities and is projected to serve roughly 36.5 million passengers per year. Currently, about 75% of the world’s population is reachable from Dubai within an eight-hour flight. The UAE’s GDP is expected to grow from roughly $480B in 2024 to more than $800B by 2031, with tourism contributing about 15% of that total. (Goldman Sachs)
#4 THERE GOES THE NEIGHBORHOOD: Since the “meme stock” craze in 2021, retail investor interest has not subsided—and appears here to stay. Retail investors now account for more than 20% of total U.S. trading volume (vs. 10% in Q1 2010), while Long-Only and Hedge Funds combined account for roughly 15% (vs. 23%+ in 2010). This shift has been consistent since commissions went to zero in 2019 and has been fueled by easier access to trading, a broader set of tradable products, and rising investor education. Retail investors tend to be more “risk on” compared to institutional investors, with more than 20% of YTD volume occurring in stocks trading under $5. They also prefer Consumer Discretionary stocks (roughly 36% of their mix), along with Technology and Health Care names. Elevated retail activity is likely to contribute to increased market volatility driven by behavioral biases, momentum chasing, and a higher growth premium—while low-volatility, value-oriented stocks remain less favored. (Jefferies)
#5 REIGNING HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMP: For the third consecutive year, Large Cap Growth stocks are poised to claim the top spot among the S&P U.S. Size & Style Index returns. It will also mark the seventh time in the past eight years that the category has been the best performer. Conversely, Small Cap Value looks set to finish last among style segments—though still positive for the year. Before this three-year slump, Small Cap Value ranked second and third overall in the two preceding years. (Piper Sandler)
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